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Biosim wave to cost $200m+
Posted 9 April 2018
The biosimilar 'sweet spot' of 2018/19 could deliver a minimum of $220 million in PBS savings to government if biological medicines at the patent cliff edge fall as expected.
The sweet spot, first identified by patent lawyer Naomi Pearce at the start of this year, affects Abbvie's Humira, Roche's Mabthera, Avastin and Herceptin, Amgen's Neulasta and, following news that Mylan had registered a biosim competitor, Sanofi's Lantus.
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Collectively, these brands earned more than $880 million in pre-rebate R/PBS benefits for the 12 months to January 2018.
On the basis that the current Medicines Australia/government strategic agreement imposes a 25 per cent cut on originators when a first competing brand lists, this promises rolling savings of $220 million minimum as the biosimilars come to market.
Further damage will be suffered by the reference drug sponsors as new sponsors, including Samsung Bioepis, MSD and Sandoz as well as Mylan, endeavour to secure market share.
As price disclosure comes into play the total value of the market is likely to decline more.
The biggest loser on a single product will be Abbvie, whose Humira brand alone is worth $312 million in pre-rebate benefits but Roche will be worst affected overall with a total value of $370 million across its three affected brands.
For Abbvie, this means a benefits loss of $78 million; for Roche the decline will be $92.5 million.
Sanofi stands to lose $36.5 million while Amgen gets off lightest with an initial loss of $13.2 million.
Nick Lush
Posted 9 April 2018
The biosimilar 'sweet spot' of 2018/19 could deliver a minimum of $220 million in PBS savings to government if biological medicines at the patent cliff edge fall as expected.
The sweet spot, first identified by patent lawyer Naomi Pearce at the start of this year, affects Abbvie's Humira, Roche's Mabthera, Avastin and Herceptin, Amgen's Neulasta and, following news that Mylan had registered a biosim competitor, Sanofi's Lantus.
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Collectively, these brands earned more than $880 million in pre-rebate R/PBS benefits for the 12 months to January 2018.
On the basis that the current Medicines Australia/government strategic agreement imposes a 25 per cent cut on originators when a first competing brand lists, this promises rolling savings of $220 million minimum as the biosimilars come to market.
Further damage will be suffered by the reference drug sponsors as new sponsors, including Samsung Bioepis, MSD and Sandoz as well as Mylan, endeavour to secure market share.
As price disclosure comes into play the total value of the market is likely to decline more.
The biggest loser on a single product will be Abbvie, whose Humira brand alone is worth $312 million in pre-rebate benefits but Roche will be worst affected overall with a total value of $370 million across its three affected brands.
For Abbvie, this means a benefits loss of $78 million; for Roche the decline will be $92.5 million.
Sanofi stands to lose $36.5 million while Amgen gets off lightest with an initial loss of $13.2 million.
Nick Lush
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